Housing Price Indices Compared: Case-Shiller vs FHFA vs Zillow vs NAR Median
Four headlines, four different answers. Is the typical American home up 0.7% or 2.4% over the past year?
Both - and neither number is wrong. The four most-quoted home price measures track different homes, over different months, with different math. The gap between them is the story: it shows which homes are still gaining, which are stalling, and how far behind inflation prices have fallen.
All figures below come from the releases current as of November 7, 2026. Each number is dated, because with housing data the month matters as much as the number.
The Latest Readings, Side by Side
Four measures, one market, a 1.7-point spread. Here is what each one said most recently:
Two of the four also report a dollar figure. Zillow's typical home value is $364,812, and the NAR median sale price is $417,500. Those two numbers describe different things - a modeled value of a typical home versus the middle price of homes that actually sold - so the $52,688 gap between them is expected, not an error.
What Each Index Actually Measures
Same market, four different rulers. The disagreement starts with what gets counted.
1. Case-Shiller: the same house, sold twice
Repeat sales of single-family homes, tracked through public records. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index - formerly the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index - follows the price of the same house across two sales, so a shift toward bigger or fancier homes cannot move it. It covers the national market plus 20 metro areas.
In August, the national index rose 2.1% from a year earlier, up from 1.9% in July. The 10-City Composite rose 3.6% and the 20-City Composite rose 2.7%. Chicago led all metros for the sixth straight month at +6.7%, followed by New York (+6.2%) and Cleveland (+4.3%). One gap in the release: Detroit's August figure was not published, because of transaction delays at the Wayne County recording office.
Case-Shiller's "August" is a three-month average of June, July and August closings - and some June closings were agreed in April. That makes it the slowest of the four, and the most authoritative on long-run trends.
2. FHFA: the conforming-mortgage market
Repeat sales too - but only homes bought with mortgages Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index uses the same repeat-sales idea as Case-Shiller, applied to a different universe: conforming loans only.
In August, prices rose 0.3% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2.4% from a year earlier, with the index at 444.6 - a record high. July's first-reported 0.3% monthly gain was revised down to 0.2%. The regional spread was wide: 12-month gains ran from +0.5% in the Mountain division to +4.4% in the East North Central division.
Because FHFA tracks conforming loans, it leaves out cash purchases and jumbo mortgages - the top of the market. It also covers the whole country, including small markets the 20-City index never sees. The same index sets the conforming loan limits, so its definition has practical consequences beyond the headline.
3. Zillow ZHVI: the typical home's modeled value
Not a sale price at all - a modeled estimate of what the typical home is worth. The Zillow Home Value Index estimates the value of the home in the middle of the market, whether it sold recently or not, using Zillow's model of nearby sales and listings.
In October, the typical U.S. home value was $364,812, down 0.6% from September and up just 0.7% from a year earlier. Zillow's October report also showed newly pending listings down 17% year over year - the biggest drop since 2023 - and the typical monthly mortgage payment at $2,004, up 12.8% from a year earlier, with the 30-year rate averaging 7.33% in October.
ZHVI is the fastest of the four: October's report arrived November 5, while Case-Shiller and FHFA were still describing August. The trade-off is that it is a model, not a count of closings, and Zillow revises past months as more sales come in and the model updates.
4. NAR median: what buyers actually paid
The middle price of every existing home that closed in the month. The National Association of Realtors' median covers single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops that completed a sale - the price buyers actually paid, not an estimate.
In September, the median was $417,500, up 1.3% from $412,300 a year earlier - the 39th straight month of annual gains and the highest September median on record. The single-family median was $422,700 (+1.2%). Sales ran at a 3.99 million annual pace, down 2.2% from a year earlier, with 1.60 million homes for sale - 4.8 months of supply.
The median's weakness is the sales mix. If expensive homes make up a bigger share of closings, the median rises even if no individual home gained value. NAR's own regional split shows the effect: the West's median fell 0.3% year over year while the Northeast's rose 4.7%. NAR's quarterly release put the third-quarter single-family median at $432,900, up 1.7% from a year earlier.
Why the Four Numbers Disagree Right Now
Three reasons, all visible in the latest releases.
1. They describe different months
Case-Shiller and FHFA describe August. NAR describes September. Zillow describes October. A headline read in November can be describing a market from the summer - and in a market where the 30-year rate averaged 7.33% in October after ending September at 7.28%, a month is a long time.
2. They count different homes
FHFA leaves out cash and jumbo sales. NAR counts condos and co-ops. Case-Shiller counts single-family repeat sales only. Zillow models every home, sold or not. When the mix of what sells shifts - fewer starter homes, more expensive ones - the median and the repeat-sales indices move apart, and neither is lying.
3. They are all nominal - and inflation is winning
None of the four adjusts for inflation, and that changes the verdict. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August, while Case-Shiller rose 2.1% - so home prices fell in real terms for the 15th straight month, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The "prices still rising" headline and the "your house lost real value" headline are both true; they just answer different questions.
That gap between a growing headline number and a shrinking real one is the same pattern we found in third-quarter GDP: the economy grew 3.4% while the average hour of work bought 0.7% less. Read the full comparison in GDP Growth vs. Your Paycheck: Why 3.4% Growth Doesn't Feel Like Prosperity. For the CPI side of the math, see Core vs Headline Inflation: Why the Two Numbers Diverge.
The Lag Map: What Month Are You Actually Reading?
Fast, modeled, or slow and recorded - pick two. Each index trades speed for certainty:
- Zillow ZHVI - about 5 days old. October's report came out November 5. Fastest, but a model.
- NAR median - about 3 weeks old. September's report came out October 13. October's data arrives November 12.
- FHFA HPI - about 10 weeks old. August's report came out October 27. September's data arrives November 24.
- Case-Shiller - about 3 months old. August's release came out October 27, and "August" averages June-August closings. September's data arrives November 24.
That lag is why Case-Shiller is the wrong tool for "what happened last week" and the right one for "is the trend real." Zillow flags the turn first; Case-Shiller confirms it months later.
Which Index Should You Use?
Match the index to the question - that is the whole trick.
- Tracking the national trend: FHFA. Broadest repeat-sales coverage, monthly, and the index that sets conforming loan limits.
- Comparing cities: Case-Shiller 20-City. Same method across metros - Chicago at +6.7% against a +2.1% national reading shows why the national number hides the story.
- What your own home might be worth: Zillow's ZHVI for your ZIP. But it is a modeled estimate, not an appraisal - check it against recent nearby sales before acting on it.
- What sellers actually received: NAR's median. Remember it is the middle sale, not the middle home - a shift in the sales mix moves it.
- Whether housing is beating inflation: none of them alone. Subtract CPI from the nominal gain. August CPI rose 3.4% against Case-Shiller's 2.1% and FHFA's 2.4%; September CPI rose 3.7% against NAR's 1.3%; and Zillow's October gain of 0.7% trails even that latest inflation reading.
What the Four Numbers Say Together
Read together, the four measures agree on more than the headlines suggest.
Prices are still rising in dollar terms, but barely: the four year-over-year gains run from +0.7% to +2.4%, and all four trail inflation. Sales are frozen rather than falling off a cliff: NAR's 3.99 million pace is down 2.2% from a year ago, while Zillow's newly pending listings fell 17% in October - the sharpest drop since 2023 - which points to weaker closings ahead.
The sharpest move is not in prices at all. The typical monthly payment hit $2,004 in October, up 12.8% from a year earlier - roughly $227 more a month for the same typical home - because the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.33%. A buyer paying the same price as last year is paying materially more each month. More sellers are feeling it too: 27.4% of Zillow listings had a price cut in September, up from 26.2% a year earlier.
And the national number hides a split market: FHFA's divisions range from +0.5% to +4.4% year over year, and NAR's regions from -0.3% in the West to +4.7% in the Northeast. "The housing market" is not one market right now.
FAQ
Can I use the national Case-Shiller number to price my home?
No. It is a national average of repeat sales, and the spread inside it is wide - Chicago at +6.7% against the Mountain division at +0.5% on the FHFA index. Use local comparable sales and your ZIP's ZHVI as a starting point, and treat both as estimates, not appraisals.
Why does Zillow revise past months' values?
ZHVI is a modeled estimate, not a count of closings. As more sales close and the model is updated, earlier months move slightly. Treat the latest month as the freshest estimate, not a final figure - the same way FHFA revised July's monthly gain from 0.3% to 0.2% when more data arrived.
When do the next releases come out?
NAR's October existing-home sales arrive November 12, 2026. Case-Shiller and FHFA September data arrive November 24, 2026. Zillow's November market report arrives December 4, 2026.
Key Takeaway
Four measures, four answers - and the disagreement is information, not noise. Case-Shiller and FHFA track the same house sold twice, Zillow models the typical home, and NAR reports the middle sale. Right now all four say prices are rising slowly in dollars and falling after inflation, while sales stay frozen and the monthly payment climbs on rates, not prices.
So before quoting a home price number, ask which question it answers - and which month it actually describes.
Sources
- S&P Dow Jones Indices / Cotality, "S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in August 2026" (October 27, 2026) - cotality.com/press-releases/case-shiller-october-2026
- Federal Housing Finance Agency, "FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.3 Percent in August; Up 2.4 Percent from Last Year" (October 27, 2026) - fhfa.gov/news-release
- Zillow, "Newly pending listings fell 17% in October, the biggest year over year drop since 2023" (November 5, 2026) - zillow.com/research/october-2026-market-report
- National Association of Realtors, "Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report" (October 13, 2026) - nar.realtor/newsroom
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index - September 2026 (USDL-26-1574)
Comments
Post a Comment