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Yield Curve Signals in 2026: Reading the Curve After the Longest Inversion on Record

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The U.S. Treasury yield curve spent about 26 months inverted — the longest stretch in modern history — then flipped back to normal in September 2024. No recession has been dated since. Reading that upward slope as an all-clear gets history backwards: recessions have typically begun after the curve turned positive again, not while it was inverted. As of October 29, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.98% against 4.61% for the 2-year note — a spread of +37 basis points, comfortably positive. The slope alone is not the story now. What matters is how the curve got here, which end of the curve is moving, and what would actually change the read. The numbers right now, verified All figures below are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, daily Treasury constant-maturity yields (the same data the Treasury publishes in its H.15 release), as of October 29, 2026: 10-year yield: 4.98% 2-year yield: 4.61% 3-month bill: 4.18% 10-year minus 2-year spread: +0.37 perc...
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Gasoline vs Electric: Monthly Fuel Costs Compared With Real Numbers

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For a US driver covering 1,000 miles a month, a gasoline car costs about $117 a month in fuel at 30 mpg and $3.50 a gallon. An EV charged at home costs about $49 a month at 3.5 miles per kWh and $0.17 per kWh. That is $68 a month, or $817 a year, apart. The rest of this post shows the math, how charging method changes it, how diesel compares, and how long fuel savings take to cover a price gap between two cars. A Canadian example, in litres and dollars, follows further below. Try the Fuel Cost Calculator → One note on current prices: the $3.50 figure is an example used by the calculator linked below. The US Energy Information Administration's national average for regular gasoline was $4.284 a gallon in the week of October 19, 2026. At that price, the same 1,000 miles cost $143 in gasoline, so the $117 example is conservative. Prices vary a lot by state: that same week, California averaged $6.03 a gallon and Texas $3.70. The monthly math, step by step The gasoline figure uses three ...
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How to Read a Jobs Report Like an Economist

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Every month, one jobs report produces a dozen different headlines. The way to cut through them is to read five things together: payroll growth against its recent trend, the unemployment rate, revisions to earlier months, which industries actually moved, and what happened to wages, hours, and participation. The September 2026 report is a good practice case: employers added 29,000 jobs, the unemployment rate sat at 4.2%, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) described both as having "changed little." The headline alone says almost nothing. The details say much more. All figures below come from the BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), published October 2, 2026, and are seasonally adjusted. Two surveys, one release The jobs report is really two surveys published together. The household survey asks people about their work status and produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey asks employers about payrolls and produces the nonfarm payr...
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Yield Curve Signals in 2026: Reading the Curve After the Longest Inversion on Record

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Image
The U.S. Treasury yield curve spent about 26 months inverted — the longest stretch in modern history — then flipped back to normal in September 2024. No recession has been dated since. Reading that upward slope as an all-clear gets history backwards: recessions have typically begun after the curve turned positive again, not while it was inverted. As of October 29, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.98% against 4.61% for the 2-year note — a spread of +37 basis points, comfortably positive. The slope alone is not the story now. What matters is how the curve got here, which end of the curve is moving, and what would actually change the read. The numbers right now, verified All figures below are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, daily Treasury constant-maturity yields (the same data the Treasury publishes in its H.15 release), as of October 29, 2026: 10-year yield: 4.98% 2-year yield: 4.61% 3-month bill: 4.18% 10-year minus 2-year spread: +0.37 perc...
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