FST1A

The U.S. Treasury yield curve spent about 26 months inverted — the longest stretch in modern history — then flipped back to normal in September 2024. No recession has been dated since. Reading that upward slope as an all-clear gets history backwards: recessions have typically begun after the curve turned positive again, not while it was inverted. As of October 29, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.98% against 4.61% for the 2-year note — a spread of +37 basis points, comfortably positive. The slope alone is not the story now. What matters is how the curve got here, which end of the curve is moving, and what would actually change the read. The numbers right now, verified All figures below are from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, daily Treasury constant-maturity yields (the same data the Treasury publishes in its H.15 release), as of October 29, 2026: 10-year yield: 4.98% 2-year yield: 4.61% 3-month bill: 4.18% 10-year minus 2-year spread: +0.37 perc...

The short answer: the unemployment rate tells you whether people looking for work can find it; the employment rate tells you how much of the population actually has work. In September 2026, the U.S. unemployment rate sat at 4.2% — a number that has barely moved since March. The employment-population ratio sat at 59.2% — also barely moved, all year. Neither number alone settles the question "is the labor market healthy," because they are built to answer different questions. If you are hunting for a job, the unemployment rate is your number. If you want to know how much of the country is actually working, the employment rate is. And there is a trap in the name itself: the "employment rate" is not 100 minus the unemployment rate. Understanding why it is not is the key to reading both. All figures below come from the BLS Employment Situation release for September 2026 (USDL-26-1549), published October 2, 2026, and are seasonally adjusted unless noted. The name is ...

On Monday, November 2, 2026, the U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at about $4.16 — down roughly 11 to 17 cents from a week earlier, depending on whose survey you read, yet still about $1.13 higher than a year ago. The price at the pump is built from four parts: the cost of crude oil (about 51%), refining (about 20%), distribution and marketing (about 11%), and taxes (about 18%), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Only two of those four parts move week to week — crude oil and refining. This week's drop came from both: crude futures fell sharply over the weekend, and the nationwide switch to cheaper-to-produce winter-blend gasoline kept working through the system. Try the Fuel Cost Calculator → The four ingredients in a $4.16 gallon Start with the whole gallon at the national average, $4.16, and split it using the EIA's component breakdown of recent national prices: Crude oil — about $2.12 of the $4.16 (51%). This is the ...