Trump Faces Humiliation as China Ignores Tariff Threats in Second Term

Subtle Shift in U.S.-China Power Dynamics

Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th U.S. president has kicked off with an aggressive stance on trade, particularly with China, but the results are proving less impactful than during his first administration. Five years ago, Trump secured what some call a tariff surrender document, better known as the 2020 Phase One Trade Deal, where China agreed to purchase $200 billion worth of American goods and services over two years. That deal, a hallmark of Trump’s unpredictable trade tactics, forced Beijing into a corner. Fast forward to 2025, and the same playbook of tariff threats and bold promises is falling flat. Analysts suggest that Trump’s influence might peak early and fade by the 2026 midterms, potentially reducing him to a two-year phenomenon dubbed “Peak Trump.” The Guardian has even labeled him “the world’s weakest strongman,” a biting critique of his current global standing.

Trump entered his second term vowing a 10% tariff hike on Chinese imports, signaling this move within days of his January 20, 2025, inauguration. He framed it as a negotiation opener, expressing hope for a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Yet, 40 days into his term, no such call has materialized. Instead, China has responded with defiance, not only refusing to bend but also retaliating with its own tariffs. On February 27, 2025, a visibly frustrated Trump upped the ante, announcing an additional 10% tariff increase, bringing the total to 20%, set to take effect March 4, 2025. This escalation, however, has elicited little reaction from Beijing, leaving observers questioning why China remains unfazed by Trump’s maximum pressure strategy in his second term.

Foreign policy experts and major outlets like The Wall Street Journal point to a calculated shift in China’s approach. During Trump’s first term (2017-2020), his erratic tariff threats rattled Beijing, culminating in the 2020 trade agreement. Back then, China blinked, agreeing to terms seen as a diplomatic win for Trump. Today, Xi Jinping has flipped the script, adopting a strategy of indifference. Rather than caving, China has countered with precision, imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods like pickup trucks, tightening export controls on strategic minerals vital to American industries, and ramping up antitrust probes targeting U.S. tech giants like Google. This multi-pronged response signals a China far more prepared to weather Trump’s economic assaults than it was five years ago.

The power balance between Washington and Beijing appears to be tilting. A recent virtual meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng underscored this shift. Notably, it was the U.S. that initiated the call, a move interpreted as a sign of desperation from an administration struggling to maintain leverage. Trump’s team hoped to negotiate tariff relief and address broader economic tensions, but China held firm, offering no concessions. Meanwhile, Trump has broadened his trade offensive, threatening Mexico with a 25% tariff unless it imposes duties on Chinese goods transiting its borders. Mexico’s noncommittal response, reported by Bloomberg, further highlights the limits of Trump’s influence, as allies and adversaries alike seem reluctant to follow his lead in this escalating U.S.-China trade war.

What’s driving China’s newfound confidence? Experts argue it’s rooted in the “Peak Trump” theory, the idea that Trump’s leadership, constrained by a single four-year term, lacks the staying power to intimidate authoritarian regimes with longer horizons. Unlike Xi, who enjoys near-lifelong rule, or Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Trump’s authority could wane after the 2026 midterms if Republicans lose ground. Beijing seems to be betting on this, treating Trump’s tariff threats as temporary bluster from a leader whose global clout is diminishing. This perception is reinforced by Xi’s recent call with Putin, a deliberate snub of Trump amid his push to reset U.S.-Russia ties. By aligning closer with Moscow, China is signaling it won’t be isolated by Trump’s geopolitical maneuvers.

Trump’s second-term trade agenda appears fixated on reviving and upgrading the 2020 agreement, but China shows no appetite for a repeat of that perceived humiliation. Instead, Beijing is hitting back hard. Beyond tariffs, it’s leveraging its dominance in rare earth minerals, critical for everything from smartphones to military tech, and intensifying regulatory pressure on American firms. This three-pronged retaliation, tariffs, resource controls, and corporate crackdowns, contrasts sharply with Trump’s singular focus on import duties. Adding insult to injury, Xi’s decision to engage Putin while ignoring Trump’s call request underscores a broader strategy of “Trump passing,” sidelining the U.S. president in favor of alternative alliances.

The ripple effects of this standoff extend beyond economics. Trump’s transactional diplomacy is creating geopolitical openings for China. His administration has pressured Ukraine into mineral deals to end its war with Russia, while simultaneously voting against a U.N. resolution condemning Moscow, alongside nations like North Korea and Iran. This has stunned allies and eroded trust, potentially leaving Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese aggression. On February 26, 2025, Trump dodged a question about defending Taiwan militarily, saying, “I’ll never answer that.” This ambiguity, a departure from past U.S. clarity, could embolden Beijing’s “One China” ambitions, raising fears of miscalculation. South Korea, too, faces risks of being sidelined in U.S.-North Korea talks, threatening its national interests.

Critics argue Trump’s real influence hinges on the 2026 midterms. A strong showing could sustain his agenda, but a setback might render him a lame duck with two years left. Authoritarian leaders like Xi, Putin, and even Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, unbound by term limits, may simply wait him out. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz has defended Trump, claiming he’s the only leader capable of standing up to Xi, Putin, and Kim Jong Un. Yet, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. The Guardian’s Jonathan Freedland has called Trump “the greatest showman and weakest strongman,” accusing him of ceding leverage to Russia and others without gaining anything in return.

As Trump ramps up tariffs and China digs in, the U.S.-China trade war in 2025 is shaping up as a test of endurance. Beijing’s defiance, bolstered by strategic countermoves and alliances, challenges Trump’s ability to dictate terms as he did in his first term. Whether his second-term tariff strategy reshapes global trade or fizzles into a short-lived “Peak Trump” moment remains to be seen, but for now, the world’s eyes are on this high-stakes showdown between two economic giants.