China Holds Benchmark Lending Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainties
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Cautious Monetary Policy for Financial Stability and Growth / Reuters |
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has decided to maintain its benchmark lending rates, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates economic uncertainties and external pressures. The PBOC's decision demonstrates its priority on ensuring financial and currency stability amid renewed trade tensions with the United States under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
In the latest announcement, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.10%, while the five-year LPR is also steady at 3.60%. This decision aligns with the expectations of market participants, as a recent Reuters poll of 30 analysts indicated that no changes to these rates were anticipated.
In January, Chinese banks reported extending 5.13 trillion yuan (approximately $704.35 billion) in new loans, significantly increasing from December figures and exceeding analyst forecasts. However, despite this surge in lending, the year-over-year growth rate reached a record low, indicating that credit demand continues to be sluggish amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Chinese yuan has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since Trump's election victory, further constraining the PBOC's ability to ease monetary policy. The central bank has signaled its willingness to adjust monetary policy to support economic growth while contending with rising external headwinds, particularly the risk of an escalating trade war with the United States.
Trump's recent announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports has raised concerns about retaliation from Beijing, reminiscent of the tit-for-tat tariff exchanges during Trump's previous term. This backdrop saw the yuan decline by over 12% against the dollar between March 2018 and May 2020, underscoring the potential for further volatility in currency markets.
Experts suggest that the PBOC may consider lowering deposit rates and accelerating the replenishment of bank capital to alleviate pressures on commercial banks' net interest margins. Analysts note that changes in the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or fluctuations in the yuan in 2025 are unlikely to materially affect the implementation of the PBOC's appropriately loose monetary policy.
As China continues to navigate the complexities of its economic landscape, the central bank remains committed to a careful approach in balancing the need for stimulus with the imperative of maintaining financial and economic stability in a challenging global environment.
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