CEO Confidence Surges to 3-Year High, Signaling Economic Optimism

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Business Leaders Show Renewed Optimism in Economic and Labor Market Growth / Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images


The latest data from the Conference Board reveals a significant rise in CEO confidence, reaching its highest level in three years. The confidence index for the first quarter of 2025 surged by nine points to 60, marking a transition from "cautious optimism" to "confident optimism" among top executives.

This quarterly survey, which collected responses from 134 chief executives across the United States between January 27 and February 10, indicates broad-based optimism across industries. Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, highlighted that business leaders have become significantly more positive about both current and future economic conditions.

One of the key factors fueling this optimism is the labor market. A substantial 73% of CEOs stated they plan to either expand or maintain their current workforce within the next 12 months. Additionally, the challenges of labor shortages appear to be easing, with many executives reporting fewer difficulties in hiring new employees. However, a notable trend of "low hire, low fire" remains evident. The percentage of CEOs expecting to increase their workforce dropped to 32%, down from 40% in the previous quarter, while those planning no changes in employment levels rose to 41% from 34%.

Beyond employment trends, business leaders expressed a markedly improved outlook on the overall economy. A notable 44% of CEOs believe current economic conditions have improved compared to six months ago, a sharp increase from 20% in the prior quarter. Moreover, confidence in future economic conditions has strengthened, with 56% of executives expecting further improvement in the next six months, up from 33% last quarter.

Risk perceptions among CEOs have also shifted. According to Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of the Business Council and chair emeritus of the Conference Board, concerns over major business risks such as cybersecurity threats, regulatory uncertainties, financial instability, and supply chain disruptions have eased compared to the previous quarter. However, geopolitical instability remains a growing concern, with 55% of CEOs identifying it as a high-impact risk to their industry, up from 52% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Despite this surge in executive confidence, consumer sentiment tells a different story. The University of Michigan's February consumer sentiment survey reported a seven-month low, reflecting growing worries about inflation and economic uncertainty among everyday consumers. This contrast highlights the divergence between corporate optimism and consumer concerns, shaping the economic landscape as 2025 progresses.

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