Bitcoin’s Price Movements Seem ‘Manufactured’ Amid Institutional Investment

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Samson Mow Raises Questions About Market Dynamics and Future Trends

Recent discussions in the cryptocurrency world have highlighted concerns regarding Bitcoin's price movements, with some analysts describing them as potentially “manufactured.” Trading within a range of $92,400 to $106,500 since mid-December 2024, Bitcoin has exhibited unusual price behavior, especially in light of significant institutional inflows. During a panel at Consensus Hong Kong, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, emphasized that the cryptocurrency's price patterns do not appear organic, often showing a tendency to peak before stabilizing, which suggests possible price suppression.

Despite the price stagnation, there remains a prevailing optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Mow indicated that a breakout past the $100,000 mark could signal the onset of substantial institutional adoption over the next decade or two. Historical bull runs were tempered by issues such as backlogged exchanges; however, the advent of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has removed significant barriers, allowing traditional financial capital to flow more freely into Bitcoin. Nevertheless, the anticipated influx of investment has yet to fully manifest, with institutions primarily “dipping their toes” into the market rather than making substantial commitments.

The sluggish price action is particularly perplexing given the continuous accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional buyers, including notable strategies from figures like Michael Saylor. Mow pointed out that while retail investors engage in dollar-cost averaging by consistently purchasing Bitcoin, there seems to be persistent selling pressure countering these buying trends. “If Bitcoin’s price remains static despite accumulation by institutions and retail investors, it implies that there is a party actively selling,” he stated. He also noted that the market previously experienced structural selling due to bankruptcies and corporate restructuring, but those circumstances appear to be fading.

Another contributing factor to the current selling pressure is the repayment process at FTX, a significant player in the crypto market. As FTX commences repaying its creditors, it is doing so at Bitcoin prices from November 2022, which were around $20,000. This scenario may lead to increased selling as creditors look to realize gains, potentially exacerbating the lack of upward price movement. Mow highlighted that FTX’s sales of Bitcoin, executed at considerably lower price points, could help explain the sluggish price dynamics.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,000 but quickly retreated into its previous trading range. This volatility, coupled with a substantial accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional investors, has led analysts to question the current market conditions. Notably, 1.1 million Bitcoin, valued at approximately $110 billion, were absorbed in the two months leading up to October 2024. Despite this substantial demand, Bitcoin’s price has remained confined within a narrow band.

Furthermore, the broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing its own set of challenges, with Bitcoin recently falling below $95,000—its lowest point in weeks. Other cryptocurrencies, including Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin, have also seen declines. Nevertheless, some analysts remain optimistic, forecasting that Bitcoin could soon exceed price levels of $160,000 to $180,000, indicating a potential for significant upward movement in the future.

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